www.theage.com.au

Population skews jobs data

The Australian Bureau of Statistics sets its baseline for growth in the working-age population - that's the 15-years and over age group - every quarter.

The labour force figures for January and February show the working-age population rising by 18,500 a month.

The bureau will factor the same rise into the March figures, due for release on Thursday.

That will mean an annual rise of 225,000, or 1.2 per cent, over the year to March, compared with just under 300,000 over the year to the previous March. But figures yesterday showed the rate of population growth is picking up, not slowing down.

The overseas arrivals and departures data from the bureau provide a monthly count of foreigners coming to Australia intending to stay in Australia for a year or more, and Australians returning after long-term stays abroad.

They also show how many Australian residents and long-term visitors are heading abroad for the long term.

The balance of these long-term arrivals and departures provides a good estimate of net migration to Australia, which is the main reason for changes in population growth from year to year.

It's easy to conclude that the working-age population growth in the past year was actually more like 340,000, rather than the 225,000 factored into the labour force data.

What's more, the latest monthly growth rate of 18,500 a month is well below what the arrivals and departures figures indicate. AAP

Garry Shilson-Josling